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Overconfidence Nearly everyone overestimates their abilities. Regardless of how much of a novice or expers one is at poker, most are all a victim to overconfidence. In a sense it's like seeing people on American Idol embarrass themselves during a musical audition, then you see them in tears because they honestly don't get it....they actually believe they have talent, when in fact, they SUCK!...and this is obvious to EVERYONE except them. Interesting, although the fact is, for whatever reason, if you ask people to rate themselves on almost any ability, most of them will rate themselves above average or higher, which, of course, is statistically impossible.This tendency probably exists everywhere, but it is particularly common in modern America. The current system emphasizes building self-esteem and regards criticism as destructive. Students and workers used to be told about their faults, but not today. Most Poker Players Overestimate Their Abilities. In fact, overestimation and overconfidence affects nearly every aspect of poker. Weak players insist they are good and that only terrible luck keeps them from winning. We all hate to hear bad-beat stories (even if we tell our share of them), but we can’t avoid them. People need an excuse for their poor results. Moderately good players insist on playing at levels they can’t beat. They can beat smaller games, but have no chance at higher limits. They build a bankroll, move up, lose it, move down, build another one, and repeat the cycle, perhaps for years. They just don’t get the message: “You’re not good enough to beat bigger games.” Although overestimation is annoying, it is also the primary source of our profits. If they knew how badly they played, most live ones wouldn’t play with us. You must never forget an essential fact: If you play against equally skilled players, everybody must lose. The only winner is the house. |
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